Define the heat-memory update
Specify a scalar recurrence that adds new thermal anomaly and partially retains prior stress.
← All researchMF-PRISM-REEF-2026-01 / interactive guide
THE IDEA, MADE VISIBLE
The same heat. A different history.
Rearrange an identical heat budget and see what a simple memory model retains.
Research reportThermal Stress Geometry for Coral Bleaching
Hold the total fixed
Each synthetic 84-day record has exactly 42 days at HotSpot 1°C and 42 at zero, including the same final seven cool days. Terminal DHW is 6°C-weeks in every case.
- Terminal DHW
- 6 °C-weeks
- Day inspected
- 84
- Memory at selected day
- 11.619
All histories end with DHW = 6°C-weeks. The late history has model memory 11.619 at day 84; this is not a bleaching-risk estimate.
Dᵢ₊₁ = e⁻ʳ Dᵢ + Hᵢ(1−e⁻ʳ)/r, with one-day steps
TRY THIS
Compare early and late with the same decay setting. Terminal DHW stays 6°C-weeks, while terminal model memory changes.
What this experiment represents. Synthetic 84-day histories and an explicitly chosen, unfitted scalar teaching model. The parameterization here is illustrative, not a reproduction of the paper’s fitted biology—there is no fitted biology or bleaching probability.
Reef & Climate · Research Paper
Thermal Stress Geometry for Coral Bleaching
Order-sensitive heat memory, chronology bounds, and an auditable path to ReefWatch
Research reportMF-PRISM-REEF-2026-01 / v0.2
Study how the order of heat exposure affects a precisely specified scalar memory model. The paper gives exact affine summaries and chronology bounds, with synthetic histories and a NOAA environmental-arithmetic audit.
- Identifier
- MF-PRISM-REEF-2026-01
- Series
- Reef & Climate
- Edition
- Version 0.2
- Length
- 20 pages
- Reserved DOI
- 10.5281/zenodo.22728224 (record reserved)
01
Plain-language guide
3 minute explanation
What this paper is really saying.
The paper shows how two reefs with the same total heat stress can receive different model states because the order and spacing of hot days are different.
coral bleachingthermal stresschronology
Aggregate measures such as Degree Heating Weeks summarize accumulated heat, but they can erase chronology. A concentrated recent heat pulse and the same total spread over an older period may not represent the same biological stress history.
The paper studies a precisely defined memory recurrence that discounts older heat. Because the update is order-sensitive, it can distinguish histories with the same aggregate total and provide exact best- and worst-case chronology bounds.
02
How it works
The argument, without the notation.
The paper’s technical details matter, but the basic route can be understood in three moves.
Compress the chronology
Derive an exact affine summary for a complete sequence of heat inputs.
Bound unknown order
Use chronology sorting to compute sharp upper and lower states when some timing information is uncertain.
03
What it adds
The useful takeaways.
Heat order can matter even when total accumulated heat is identical.
The scalar model admits exact affine summaries and chronology bounds.
A historical NOAA calculation audits environmental arithmetic, but no fitted bleaching probability is claimed.
04
Scope & limits
What this does—and does not—establish.
Current status
Mathematical derivations, synthetic experiments, and a historical NOAA arithmetic audit. Model parameters remain illustrative and unfitted; no predictive skill for observed bleaching is established.
This report develops a conditional method and evaluates it within the stated evidence. It does not establish production performance, operational safety, or calibrated real-world predictive skill beyond that evidence.
Model parameters are illustrative and have not been fitted to observed bleaching outcomes.
The paper does not establish predictive skill or biological superiority over DHW.
Complete temperature support, masks, units, and provenance are required for a real validation.
05
Why it matters
Why anyone should care.
Two reefs can accumulate the same headline heat metric through very different histories. An order-sensitive memory model may preserve biologically relevant chronology that aggregate totals erase.
06
Key terms
The vocabulary, decoded.
These are the terms needed to understand the claim. The full paper uses them more precisely.
Thermal anomaly
Temperature above a chosen expected or climatological baseline.
Degree Heating Week
A cumulative heat-stress metric widely used in coral-reef monitoring.
Memory model
A model whose current state retains part of earlier inputs.
Contraction
An update that reduces the influence of older state over time.
07
Independent review
Where scrutiny should concentrate.
The strongest review is not a general reaction. It tests the steps most capable of changing the conclusion.
- 01Model assumptions and positive contraction in chronology sorting.
- 02DHW units, complete lookback support and environmental provenance.
- 03No fitted bleaching probability or biological superiority claim.
Publication record
Go from explanation to evidence.
This page is a reading guide, not a substitute for the manuscript. The public record links the explanation to the paper, source package, review materials, and persistent identifier.
- Document
- Research Paper
- Review status
- Open for independent review
- Published
- 2026-09-12
- DOI status
- Reserved · 10.5281/zenodo.22728224
- Canonical record
- MF-PRISM-REEF-2026-01
Metriq PRISM Laboratory, Thermal Stress Geometry for Coral Bleaching, Metriq PRISM Laboratory Research Paper MF-PRISM-REEF-2026-01, Version 0.2, 2026. Corresponding contributor: Daniel H. Jeffery, ORCID 0009-0001-1200-6042. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22728224.