Fix the incident lineage
Represent merges, splits, and attribution changes explicitly so the comparison continues to refer to the same incident object.
← All researchMF-PRISM-FIRE-2026-03 / interactive guide
THE IDEA, MADE VISIBLE
Do not let a merger look like growth.
Hold the incident lineage fixed while a reporting boundary absorbs a neighboring fire.
Research reportLineage-Stable Wildfire Geometry
Name the comparison object
Incident A begins at 100 area units. Neighbor B has 80. A meaningful growth comparison must specify which lineage is being followed.
- New report area
- 200
- Naive growth
- 100%
- A-only growth
- 20%
A actually grows by 20%. Comparing the merged report with old A gives 100%: the extra 80 percentage points come from B.
Apparent change = physical change + change in attribution
TRY THIS
Set A’s growth to zero and choose the merged report. The naive comparison still reports 80% growth; lineage-stable growth is zero.
What this experiment represents. Synthetic disjoint-rectangle area accounting, not a real fire perimeter, geospatial model or validated forecast. Thermal detections must not be treated as observed burned-area boundaries.
Wildfire Intelligence · Research Paper
Lineage-Stable Wildfire Geometry
Sharp growth bounds, detection-footprint witnesses, and shared-history evaluation
Research reportMF-PRISM-FIRE-2026-03 / v0.2
Define fire growth relative to a fixed incident lineage and compatible spatial histories, rather than combining incomparable boundaries. Finite geometry primitives and a small public scalar audit support the proposed research method.
- Identifier
- MF-PRISM-FIRE-2026-03
- Series
- Wildfire Intelligence
- Edition
- Version 0.2
- Length
- 22 pages
- Reserved DOI
- 10.5281/zenodo.22727590 (record reserved)
01
Plain-language guide
3 minute explanation
What this paper is really saying.
The paper prevents false geometry comparisons by requiring every perimeter or detection footprint to belong to one fixed incident lineage and one compatible spatial history.
wildfiregeometryincident lineage
Wildfire records change identity over time. Incidents merge, split, are renamed, absorb neighboring fires, and switch between sensor footprints and mapped burned-area boundaries. Comparing two shapes without tracking those changes can create meaningless growth.
The paper defines a lineage-stable object first, then asks which spatial histories are compatible with the observations. Growth bounds are computed only across those shared histories.
02
How it works
The argument, without the notation.
The paper’s technical details matter, but the basic route can be understood in three moves.
Separate geometry types
Distinguish thermal-detection footprints from observed or mapped burned-area boundaries.
Bound shared histories
Construct feasible histories and derive endpoint certificates for the minimum and maximum compatible growth.
03
What it adds
The useful takeaways.
Apparent perimeter growth is rejected when the underlying incident lineage or geometry type changed.
Finite geometry primitives produce auditable lower and upper bounds across compatible histories.
The paper includes synthetic checks and a limited public scalar audit, not a validated operational spread model.
04
Scope & limits
What this does—and does not—establish.
Current status
Conditional geometric bounds, synthetic checks, and a limited public scalar audit. No real-fire geometry model has been validated. Research only; not an official emergency warning.
This report develops a conditional method and evaluates it within the stated evidence. It does not establish production performance, operational safety, or calibrated real-world predictive skill beyond that evidence.
No real-fire geometry forecasting skill has been established.
A thermal detection footprint is not the same thing as a burned-area perimeter.
Lineage assignments and fixed support remain consequential modeling choices.
05
Why it matters
Why anyone should care.
Merges, splits, attribution changes, and sensor footprints can make apparent perimeter growth meaningless. A lineage-stable method keeps the comparison object fixed.
06
Key terms
The vocabulary, decoded.
These are the terms needed to understand the claim. The full paper uses them more precisely.
Incident lineage
The tracked identity of a fire through renaming, merging, splitting, and attribution changes.
Perimeter
A boundary used to represent the spatial extent of a fire at a given time.
Detection footprint
The spatial support of a sensor detection, which may be larger or different from the burned area.
Feasible history
A sequence of geometries consistent with the stated observations and constraints.
07
Independent review
Where scrutiny should concentrate.
The strongest review is not a general reaction. It tests the steps most capable of changing the conclusion.
- 01Merges, splits, attribution and fixed support.
- 02Detection footprints versus observed burned-area boundaries.
- 03Feasible shared histories and numerical endpoint certificates.
Publication record
Go from explanation to evidence.
This page is a reading guide, not a substitute for the manuscript. The public record links the explanation to the paper, source package, review materials, and persistent identifier.
- Document
- Research Paper
- Review status
- Open for independent review
- Published
- 2026-09-12
- DOI status
- Reserved · 10.5281/zenodo.22727590
- Canonical record
- MF-PRISM-FIRE-2026-03
Metriq PRISM Laboratory, Lineage-Stable Wildfire Geometry, Metriq PRISM Laboratory Research Paper MF-PRISM-FIRE-2026-03, Version 0.2, 2026. Corresponding contributor: Daniel H. Jeffery, ORCID 0009-0001-1200-6042. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22727590.